Anne Zelenka recently predicted that software businesses will move from the extreme 'closed' and 'open' licensing models toward the center, what she refers to as 'clopen', or hybrid closed and open licensing models. I think she's missing something.

I don't know Anne, so I don't know her background. However, I do know she seems to be working from a flawed premise. She cites Google's licensing mixture, along with the need for companies like Microsoft to move toward more openness. The problem is, this is the way Google has always done business. They are not moving from 'extremely open' toward the center - they are already at the center. It's true they have been very successful in their adventures in Hybrid-License Land.

Zelenka fails to offer any evidence that any companies - big or small - will move from an extreme 'open' toward the center. Part of the reason she comes up short here is that there are only a small number (count 'em on two hands or less) of companies that really are 'extremely open' to begin with. I know. I have searched high and low, and probably less than a dozen businesses actually maintain a "free-software only" business model (including internal modifications). I have been through at least two databases of hundreds of "open source" companies, and that was all I found - at least in the United States.* There are some 'open' companies in other countries, but how many is anyone's guess at this point.

Mind you, I have written previously about Ada Core Technologies, which is a small, but multi-national company with high-end clients. I really think the Free/Open model really lends itself well to the small business model much better than to the conglomerate. I think this model takes on more of a blacksmith shop approach than a Wal-mart approach. The issue is whether the blacksmiths can make it on their own, or need some sort of alliance - freelancing or temp agencies, anyone?

The way I see it, most 'open' companies are really hybrids anyway. So the reality is that the closed companies will be moving toward a more open stance, while the others can afford to keep their hybrid status. I do see more and more 'closed' businesses opening up, and releasing more Free and Open Source Software. However, I seriously doubt that, having tasted of the choice that freedom offers, the handful of libre-only businesses will move toward a closed model. So, I am certain that there will be more hybrids entering the arena this year, but not from the freedom model. History suggests that only a very few companies have gone from more open to less; most go from closed to open.

The real challenge continues to be, how can we succeed without closing our source? Only a few companies have managed to do this, with almost all of them being small fries that most people never heard of. But it is possible to do business this way. I would suggest that, eventually, we will see more and more companies discover how to develop software without restricting users' freedom to use, study, modify, and redistribute the programs. Meanwhile, for 2008, You can bet we'll see a lot more businesses learning to respect users' freedom.

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* Please note that there may be some companies that are currently active and not listed in any of the known databases of FOSS vendors.